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Poisson distribution in betting is used to calculate the frequency of

any occurrence in a game. In this article, you will learn how to calculate the

probability of any score in football, and how to use it to calculate who is likely to

win.

What is Poisson Distribution in Betting?

Poisson distribution was developed by

19th century French mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson. It is a probability theory that

uses historical sports data to predict the outcome of a sports event. It measures the

likelihood of how many times an event will occur during a specific period.

This may

seem complicated to someone who has no background in maths, but it is actually a fairly

simple method. To put it simply in terms of football betting, Poisson distribution can

help you predict how likely each number of goals scored is.

Why is Poisson Distribution

Important?

When bookies set their odds, it is important to know how likely any event

is, based on past performance. Bookies do not simply come up with odds out of the blue.

They use mathematical models. If you want to take a scientific, mathematical approach

to betting, you should calculate for yourself how likely you think a specific game

event, or set of events will be. That is the first step to finding value. If you have

found something that is more likely to happen than what the bookies predict, that is

what value is.

Poisson distribution in betting is particularly relevant for games like

football, where scoring happens on an incremental scale. It helps you determine the

likelihood of each possible score.

The Poisson distribution is commonly used to

calculate the likelihood of a specific score in football, as well as a win, lose or

draw. You need to first calculate your league’s average goal expectancy, along with the

attack strength and defence strength for both sides.

How to calculate goal

expectancy

Your team's goal expectancy depends on your team’s attack strength and

defence strength, and as well as that of the opposite team.

In our example, we will use

the data from the 2024-2024 English Premier League to calculate a hypothetical match

between Manchester City and Liverpool. Manchester is the home team, while Liverpool is

the away team.

Before calculating these, we need to know:

The total home goals scored

by all EPL teams

The total away goals scored by all EPL teams

The average number of

home goals and away goals per match for the whole league

We need to calculate

Manchester City’s:

Home goal average

Average goals allowed per home match

We need to

calculate Liverpool’s:

Away goal average

Average goals allowed per away match

These

stats are easy to find at the Premier League’s official site.

Calculating Attack

Strength

With these results, we can easily calculate attack strength for the home and

away team. Attack Strength is the team’s average number of goals, divided by the

league’s Average number of goals.

Home

Manchester City’s Attack Strength: 3.00 ÷ 1.53 =

1.96

Away

Liverpool’s Attack Strength: 1.78 ÷ 1.147 = 1.55

Calculating Defence

Strength

Calculating Defence Strength is just as easy. Simply divide the team’s average

number of goals allowed by the league’s average number of goals allowed.

Manchester

City’s Defence Strength: 0.63 ÷ 1.147 = 0.55

Away

Liverpool’s Defence Strength: 0.63 ÷

1.532 = 0.41

Goal expectancy

Now that we have determined each team’s Attack Strength

and Defence Strength, we can calculate each team’s likely score.

Manchester City goal

expectancy

To determine how many goals Manchester City will likely score, we need to

multiply Manchester City’s Attack Strength by Liverpool’s Defence Strength and the

league’s average number of home goals.

That gives us:

1.96 × 0.41 × 1.532 =

1.23

Liverpool goal expectancy

To determine how many goals Liverpool will likely score,

we need to multiply Liverpool’s Attack Strength by Manchester City’s Defence Strength

and the league’s average number of away goals.

That gives us:

1.55 × 0.55 × 1.147 =

0.997

Average goals scored in the match

Manchester City: 1.23

Liverpool: 0.997

Using

the Poisson Formula to calculate the likelihood of each possible score

Now that we have

each team’s home and away defence and attack strengths, we can easily use them with the

Poisson formula to calculate the probability of any possible outcome.

The Poisson

Formula

The Poisson Formula is:

P (k events in interval) = (?k e –?) / k!

In this

formula:

P is the probability

is the probability k is the number of occurrences in the

interval (number of goals)

is the number of occurrences in the interval (number of

goals) ? is the expected number of goals

is the expected number of goals e is Euler's

number (e = 2.71828…)

is Euler's number (e = 2.71828…) k! is the factorial of k

Poisson

Calculator

Using this formula, you can calculate the probability for any number of

goals. However, there are plenty of online calculators which will make the job simpler.

To use the calculator, fill in each possible score (limit yourself from 1 to 5)

separately in the top in “Event occurrences”, and the expected average goals score per

match in the bottom, in “Expected event occurrences”.

That gives us the following

probability for Manchester City Goals:

That gives us the following probability for

Liverpool City Goals:

Predicting the match outcome based on these probabilities

To get

each possible score, simply multiply the probability of each possible score by each

team by the probability of each possible score by the other team. This gives you the

following distribution:

As you can see, the most likely score is 1 – 1, or 1 – 0

followed by 0 – 0 or 0 – 1. Given the defence averages of both teams, it is easy to see

how these would be very likely scores.

How Bookies Convert Estimated Chance Into

Betting Odds

Bookies use Poisson distribution to calculate betting odds for outcomes in

various markets. You can do the same by converting your calculated probabilities into

odds. The calculations are quite simple.

To calculate the chance of a Manchester City

win , we add all the red squares from the table above: that gives us an estimated

chance of 0.4142, or 41.42%

, we from the table above: that gives us an estimated

chance of 0.4142, or 41.42% To calculate the chance of a Liverpool win , we add all the

green squares from the table above: that gives us an estimated chance of 0.29867, or

29.87%

, we from the table above: that gives us an estimated chance of 0.29867, or

29.87% To calculate the chance of a draw, we add all the yellow squares from the table

above: that gives us an estimated chance of 0.286118, or 28.61%

To convert each of

these chances into odds, we use the following formula:

Odds = 1/ (probability)

That

gives us the following odds:

Manchester City win: 1/ (0.4142) = 2.4390

1/ (0.4142) =

2.4390 Liverpool win: 1/ (0.29867) = 3.3333

1/ (0.29867) = 3.3333 Draw: 1/ (0.286118) =

3.4483

You can convert these to American or fractional odds, but decimals are easier to

work with. The calculator on our page about implied probability should help you do the

maths faster.

Advantages of Poisson Distribution in Betting

Using Poisson distribution

in betting has many advantages. First of all, it helps you understand how odds are set

in the first place. By adding up the likelihood of various possibilities, bookies are

able to set up relatively accurate odds. You can do the same and compare your result to

what the bookies are presenting. Betting lines are not only set by using these

equations. Popular matches in particular often see the odds offered (betting lines)

change, as more money comes in on a particular outcome.

That is one example of how you

can use Poisson distribution to beat the bookies. Comparing your own odds to the ones

offered by the bookies is part of a sound betting strategy.

Limitations of Poisson

Distribution in Betting

Poisson distribution is a mathematical formula that offers

estimated probabilities, not certainties. The more data it has to rely on, the more

accurate it can get. On the other hand, no squad is the same for each match of the

year.

A player’s injury or absence can make a huge difference in how the entire squad

will perform. At the beginning of the season, most teams also have a different line-up

than the year before. This makes setting odds using data from a previous season

problematic. Still, that does not necessarily put you at a disadvantage, since the

bookies also have fewer data to rely on.

As the season goes longer, it becomes easier

to predict, since there is more current data available.

It is not so hard to create

your own Poisson distribution calculator with Excel; in fact, you do not need to

download one from an external site. This step-by-step guide will show you how to make

your own.

1. Calculate your team’s expected goals

First, calculate your team’s expected

goals. That is the team's average attack strength × the other team’s defence strength ×

average goals per match. Below, we calculated Manchester City’s expected goals at

1.23.

Check out: Expected Goals Explained.

2. Create the following table in Excel:

3.

Go to the square next to 0, and right click.

4. Click on formulas> Insert Function >

Poisson.Dist

5. Fill in:

X = B5 (or click on the number next to 0)

Mean = 1.23 (Your

team’s expected goals)

Cumulative = FALSE

6. Move the cursor to the bottom right of C5

and use the plus cursor to drag the formula down.

This gives you the Poisson

distribution for 0 to 5 goals of the expected goal average which is 1.23. You can

combine the results of your team’s probabilities to get a distribution that looks like

this (the same as the above).

Here at ThePuntersPage we have a full range of football

statistics that you may also like to check out ranging across all the major countries

and leagues:

Player Stats

Team Stats

Profit & Loss Stats

Streaks & Trends

Poisson

Distribution FAQs How do you use Poisson Distribution in football? Poisson distribution

uses probability to determine the odds of any score, based on both team’s past

performance and league averages. First, you need to calculate each team’s attack and

defence strength and multiply them by the league average. Next, you use the Poisson

formula to determine the likelihood of any individual score. How do you predict

football scores? One way to predict football scores is with Poisson distribution. This

is a mathematical way to estimate the probability of any score. It is based on both

team’s past performance and league averages. Use it to calculate each teams the

likelihood of each possible number of goals for a team, and multiply that by the

likelihood of each possible number of goals for the other team. How is goal expectancy

calculated in football? Goal expectancy in football uses the following formula: Attack

Strength of the team × Defence Strength of the other team × the league’s Average Number

of Goals. How do you calculate the attack strength of a football team? Attack Strength

is the team’s average number of goals divided by the league’s Average number of goals

for that season. How do you calculate the probability of winning a football match?

Using Poisson distribution, the probability of winning a football match is the sum of

the probabilities of each individual possible winning score. How do you make your own

odds? To make your own odds, first calculate or estimate the likelihood of an event,

then use the following formula: Odds = 1/ (probability). Compare your odds to your

bookie's odds to see if they offer any value.

ThePuntersPage Final Say

It can be a bit

of work understanding how to calculate odds for various game outcomes. Once you

understand Poisson distribution, it becomes much simpler. Luckily, our calculators, as

well as the Excel method explained in this article, can help you. Knowing estimated

odds and comparing them to the bookies odds is a sure path to finding value in

betting.